THE QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE

When Negative Consumer Sentiment is at Odds with Positive Economic Reports. 

Delving into the Question, “If the Economy is so Bad, Why are Markets Moving Up?” 


The Economy’s Confusing Conundrum

As if the investing world isn't confusing enough, investors are now finding themselves in the middle of a battle of competing narratives. On one front, consumer sentiment still sits at historically pessimistic levels. In general, when surveyed, a majority of consumers view the economy as bad and getting worse. According to a Gallup May 31st survey, their Economic Confidence Index dipped to an abysmal -34. Compared to the last twenty-eight years, the reading was only worse on two occasions, in 2022 when inflation growth was at its worst, and at the depth of the 2008 financial crisis. When asked about the economic outlook, 70% of respondents viewed the economy as getting worse.

Policy leaders and economists offer a contrary story, arguing the economy is strong and performing well.  ...click here to continue reading



About The Quarterly Perspective
The Quarterly Perspective is a periodic update addressing some of the biggest issues in the economy and markets. We provide key insights about fundamentals and where we stand in the U.S. business cycle.