THE QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE
Tariffs Dominate the Outlook
As the U.S. economy was beginning to find balance, proposed tariffs disrupt future expectations.
In the three weeks since the initial “Liberation Day” April 2nd tariff announcement, the news on tariffs has moved at a tremendous pace. As markets digest daily developments, we are offering a summary of our current thoughts on the situation.
The Impact on Markets
- The initial sell-off in equities at the news of reciprocal tariffs showed the market was caught off guard at the size, scale, and scope of tariffs. Granted, everyone had previously expected tariffs, but not to the degree announced on April 2nd.
- Markets are showing heightened sensitivity to trade news in both directions. For example, the news on April 9th declaring a suspension on reciprocal tariffs fueled the S&P 500 to a +9.5% up day.1
- The uncertainty about final tariff rules also creates problematic uncertainty for corporate executives who must share forward forecasts for 12-month earnings and revenues. It will be tough for equity markets to fully stabilize until executives can restore...click here to continue reading
About The Quarterly Perspective
The Quarterly Perspective is a periodic update addressing some of the biggest issues in the economy and markets. We provide key insights about fundamentals and where we stand in the U.S. business cycle.