THE QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE

Mid-Cycle Expansion Poised for Pending Tax Boost in 2026

One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) expected to lift consumers and GDP

In the midst of last year’s tariff turmoil, Congress passed a substantial tax reform bill that, at the time, received little fanfare and attention. However, in the coming months, a vast majority of U.S. households will realize notable reductions in their tax bills. The boost arrives at an interesting moment, as the economy continues to shake off the huge distortions of Covid-era policies and appears ready to return to something resembling normal.

In short, policy experts estimate average savings of roughly $1,800 for middle-income households under the new rules.¹ For some, this will mean a smaller tax bill; for others, it will result in a larger refund. All told, the net effect is expected to be an excess fiscal stimulus exceeding $129 billion flowing into an economy that is already in comparatively good shape.² Here’s what investors should know about how 2026 is shaping up...continue reading here.

About The Quarterly Perspective
The Quarterly Perspective is a periodic update addressing some of the biggest issues in the economy and markets. We provide key insights about fundamentals and where we stand in the U.S. business cycle.